In this article, we will take stock of what is certain about vaccines to combat COVID-19, with a focus on vaccines: what we know today.
NB In the next paragraphs of this article: focus on vaccines: what we know today, they have been written based on the scientific evidence proven by the multiple studies and research on Coronavirus, leaving aside personal thoughts and subjective or biased points of view.
Benefits of COVID-19 Vaccines
We must immediately agree on one point, experiments on humans have at least two advantages over experiments on laboratory animals:
- There are no concerns regarding species differences that occur when extrapolating from laboratory animal test results to potential human impacts.
- Humans are exposed to a myriad of toxic stressors before, during, and after testing , providing results that mirror real-life experience.
We can therefore affirm that human studies will be more relevant if the characteristics of the study population reflect those of the target population (i.e. the one that will undergo the vaccine).
Disadvantages of COVID-19 vaccines
However, this path (direct experimentation on humans) also brings with it two intrinsic disadvantages :
- Exposures to toxic stimuli are not known or, if known, have not been accurately estimated.
- Identifying long-term effects requires long periods of time
It is precisely on this last point that the detractors of the COVID-19 vaccine are focusing their efforts, because the question that is most frequently asked today is how long will it take to see these long-term effects?
In a previous study on vaccines and autoimmunity, the authors concluded that "latency periods may range from days to years for post-infectious and post-vaccination autoimmunity."
“Submerged” problems of vaccines
Furthermore, medium-term adverse effects of vaccines, such as inflammatory demyelination of the central nervous system (CNS) and diabetes have been shown to emerge after about 3 years. Long-term effects, such as cancer, Alzheimer's disease, Parkinson's disease, etc., have not been studied.
Indeed, investigating such effects would require several decades of close monitoring to identify such adverse effects , which is unlikely to happen for any vaccine.
The dangerous transgenerational effects
Another issue overlooked in vaccine discussions is: potential transgenerational effects .
Transgenerational studies of the harmful effects of substances tend to focus on environmental causes; however, there are only a few examples of such studies for drugs.
A previous study on transgenerational late effects induced by chemotherapy raised some concerns, both because of the paucity of such studies in the literature and because of the transmission of adverse effects deep into the generational chain .
We can summarily conclude that due to inadequate safety testing of several toxic stimuli in the past (including vaccines), it remains uncertain whether a number of diseases currently affecting humanity may be due in part to the actions of our predecessors transmitted to us through transgenerational effects.
It is unclear, therefore, whether any of the drugs, vaccines, foods, or radiation exposures of our predecessors, which have not been tested for transgenerational effects, are currently negatively impacting our lives .
Safety and vaccines
After the above analysis, one question remains: Are we currently willing to pass on potential diseases to future generations because of the current need for rapid vaccine development, bypassing adequate long-term and transgenerational safety testing?
We don't have a certain answer to this question , but two things are certain:
- Ethical issues of concern associated with the accelerated development of vaccines , particularly the drastic reduction in time spent on Phase II and III clinical trials.
- The main target population for a vaccine is the most demographically vulnerable : the elderly with high comorbidities and dysfunctional immune systems.
However, the demographic used for initial clinical trials is the relatively young and healthy population.
This creates uncertainty about the efficacy of the study, raising questions about how to extrapolate results from a young, healthy population to an older, vulnerable population.
Cost-benefit trade-off COVID-19 vaccines
We have arrived at the central point of this article, a focus on vaccines: what we know today.
If we think broadly and think of vaccines to combat the Coronavirus as a new “good on the market”, we can say that: for every new product, the decision to implement it typically involves a trade-off between costs and benefits .
Ideally, the benefits should far outweigh the expected costs, and the potential costs and/or benefits may have a degree of certainty or uncertainty.
How can we apply this discussion to COVID-19 Vaccines?
We can state that vaccine costs are the potential negative health effects of a COVID-19 vaccine, particularly in the medium and long term. Since we cannot estimate these “costs”, we will apply a high risk factor to them.
We must then take into account that the cost-benefit trade-off for a COVID-19 vaccine is different based on different vulnerabilities to the disease.
To simplify we can divide the entire population into 2 groups:
- Highly vulnerable subjects : generally the elderly with high comorbidities and people with a compromised immune system
- The rest of the population
This demographic breakdown is similar to that for influenza and the 2002 SARS pandemic.
It follows that the cost-benefit trade-off analysis of the vaccine will be different for each of these two groups.
For the most vulnerable, the primary consideration is surviving the season .
Medium- to long-term effects may be of minor importance (although for the few younger members of this demographic with highly compromised immune systems, medium- to long-term adverse effects would not be negligible).
While for the less vulnerable (the rest of the population) the need for a vaccine is unclear , since the negative effects of the virus appear to be minor compared to the possible medium-long term side effects.
The risk, which we may well face, is that this less vulnerable demographic would have to bear the brunt of any potential medium- and long-term negative health impacts that might result from a vaccine that has not been adequately tested for these effects.
In conclusion
In our focus on vaccines: what we know today, after analyzing the scientific evidence and studies together we can conclude that a vaccine that has proven effective in the very short term for all demographics may be potentially justifiable (although high risk) for the most vulnerable demographic.
However, it is difficult to ascertain how such a vaccine could be justified for the rest of the population .
Although we must keep in mind that most of the time the belief of being healthy turns out to be a false belief since, from more in-depth analyses, dysfunctions of the immune system may emerge .
For a complete analysis of the COVID-19 situation, we also suggest you read our article: 5 things that are clear today about COVID-19 .
Sources:
- J Microbiol Immunol Infect. 2021 Feb;54(1):12-16. Published online 2020-05-15. doi: 10.1016/j.jmii.2020.05.001
- Review Nat Rev Microbiol. 2021 Mar;19(3):171-183. doi:10.1038/s41579-020-00461-z. Epub 2020 Oct 14.
- Int J Mol Med. 2020 Nov;46(5):1599–1602. Published online 2020-09-18. Doi: 10.3892/ijmm.2020.4733
